Efecto Incumbente en Elecciones Municipales: Un Análisis de Regresión Discontinua para Guatemala
Abstract
This thesis has two main objectives: (i) to analyze empirically, using data from municipal elections in Guatemala for the period 1999-2011, the effect of incumbency on the probability of being reelected and (ii) to explore the possible cause of the effects obtained from the estimations. To do this, a regression discontinuity estimation strategy is implemented exploiting the inherent discontinuity in the system of simple majority voting. Paradoxically, the findings show that far from being an advantage, incumbency seems to be an electoral disadvantage. The result extends to political parties. In the second part, the results are mixed, but suggest that elections seem to play an accountability role, but also are an important mechanism to discover the type (or quality) of politicians. This work is an important contribution to the limited literature on the dynamics of local elections in Guatemala and opens the door to future research issues.
Published
2014-11-03
How to Cite
Morales Carrera, I. (2014). Efecto Incumbente en Elecciones Municipales: Un Análisis de Regresión Discontinua para Guatemala. Economic Analysis Review, 29(2), 113-150. Retrieved from https://www.rae-ear.org/index.php/rae/article/view/414
Issue
Section
Articles
Upon submission of an article, authors are asked to indicate their agreement to abide by an open-access license. The license permits any user to download, print out, extract, archive, and distribute the article, so long as appropriate credit is given to the authors of the work. The license ensures that your article will be as widely available as possible and that your article can be included in any scientific archive. Please read about the Creative Commons Attribution License before submitting your paper.
Except where otherwise noted, content on this site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License