Un Indicador Líder del IMACEC

Héctor Felipe Bravo, Helmut Frenken

Abstract


This paper develops a methodology to build a leading indicator for economic activity in Chile, that can be applied more generally to other economic series. The first step is to evaluate the leading capacities of a group of series. The second step is to build leading indicators to summarize the information content of those series that better anticipate economic activity. Finally, since there are many ways to combine the leading series into a single indicator, a third step is to evaluate the extent to which these indicators are able to properly signal turning points in economic activity.

This paper studies the determinants of private capital flows to developing countries during the last two episodes of large inflows, the late 1970s-early 1980s and the 1990s. The paper also tests for contagion effects in capital flows among recipient countries, and tries to identify specific channels through which such effects can occur. It tests for neighborhood effects, trade-related effects, and for contagion based on the countries having similar macroeconomic indicators. The results show strong evidence for the first two effects during the 1990s, and indicate that the third effect varies depending on the type of capital flow.


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