The Term Structure of Interest Rates in Mexico: Can It Predict Future Economic Activity?
Keywords:
term structure of interest rates, economic activity, monetary policy, yield spread, MexicoAbstract
This article uses conventional models to evaluate whether the term structure of interest rates can predict economic activity in Mexico. A positive relationship between interest rate differentials and economic activity is detected, even after controlling for the monetary policy stance through short term interest rates or monetary aggregates. The differentials among longer term interest rates are found to contain more information about future economic activity than the shorter term onesDownloads
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Copyright (c) 2003 Sara G. Castellanos, Eduardo Camero
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