La Estructura Temporal de Tasas de Interés en México: ¿Puede Ésta Predecir la Actividad Económica Futura?

Abstract

This article uses conventional models to evaluate whether the term structure of interest rates can predict economic activity in Mexico. A positive relationship between interest rate differentials and economic activity is detected, even after controlling for the monetary policy stance through short term interest rates or monetary aggregates. The differentials among longer term interest rates are found to contain more information about future economic activity than the shorter term ones