Risk Analysis of the Mortgage Debtors in Chile

Authors

  • Andres Alegria Banco Central de Chile image/svg+xml
  • Jorge Bravo Quiroz y Asociados

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-88702016000200002

Keywords:

Mortgage credits, credit risk

Abstract

In this paper we characterize the bank mortgage borrowers in Chile and propose models to assess their credit risk. In particular, we study the mortgagors’ payment profile based on an empirical analysis that includes information of more than 150,000 new debtors during the period 2012-2014. Both the specify features of mortgage debt as initial loan amount and maturities, as well as debtor´s characteristics as credit history, illiquidity and coverage ratio are related to the probability of mortgage default.

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References

Alfaro, R., & Gallardo, N. (2012). The determinants of household debt default. Revista de Análisis Económico, 27(1), 55–70. https://doi.org/10.4067/s0718-88702012000100003

Alfaro, R., Pacheco, D., & Sagner, A. (2011). Dinámica de la tasa de incumplimiento de créditos de consumo en cuotas [Dynamics of the default rate on instalment consumer loans]. Economía Chilena, 14(2), 119–124.

Bajari, P., Chu, C. S., & Park, M. (2008). An empirical model of subprime mortgage default from 2000 to 2007 (NBER Working Paper 14625). National Bureau of Economic Research.

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Cámara Chilena de la Construcción. (2014). Informe macroeconomía y construcción (MACh) [Macroeconomics and construction report (MACh)] (N.º 40, junio). Cámara Chilena de la Construcción.

Elul, R., Souleles, N., Chomsisengphet, S., Glennon, D., & Hunt, R. (2010). What "triggers" mortgage default? American Economic Review, 2, 490–494.

Jackson, J. R., & Kaserman, D. L. (1980). Default risk on home mortgage loans: A test of competing hypotheses. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 47(4), 678–690. https://doi.org/10.2307/252290

Madeira, C. (2014). El impacto del endeudamiento y riesgo de desempleo en la morosidad de las familias chilenas [The impact of indebtedness and unemployment risk on the delinquency of Chilean households]. Economía Chilena, 17(1), 88–102.

Mayer, C., Pence, K., & Sherlund, S. (2009). The rise in mortgage defaults. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1(1), 27–50. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.23.1.27

Sarmiento, C. (2012). The role of the economic environment on mortgage defaults during the Great Recession. Applied Financial Economics, 3(3), 243–250. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603107.2011.613753

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Published

2016-10-21

How to Cite

Alegria, A., & Bravo, J. (2016). Risk Analysis of the Mortgage Debtors in Chile. Economic Analysis Review, 31(2), 37–64. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-88702016000200002

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