What Should We Explain? Reporting the Aggregate Fluctuations of the Chilean Economy

Abstract

Since the publication of the 1982 Kydland and Prescott’s paper, the business cycles literature has experienced significant changes. The traditional view characterized by product fluctuations mainly accounted for by nominal factors was replaced - at least in part - by models where all fluctuation sources are real. These models have shown to be capable of reproducing important features of the cycle, both for the United States and for Europe. In the less developed world, however, the view about fluctuations has remained relatively unchanged. There seems to be a generalized acceptance of the importance of money when uderstanding cycles in the region. Little evidence, however, has been provided in order to support or reject this believe. Recently, Kydland and Zarazaga (1997) offer an interesting description of the business cycle for Argentina and find no evidence of any significant differences with respect to business cycles in the developed world. More studies must be conducted in order to generalize their findings for the region.

The main goal of this paper is to report evidence on the business cycles, nominal and real, for the Chilean economy complementing Kydland and Zarazaga’s work. Our findings suggest that fluctuations in Chile are similar to those reported for Argentina and the United States. In some cases, even more similar to the latter. We expect our reports not only help to create a systematic and generalized set of facts on the behavior of cycles in the developing countries, but also facilitate the understanding of the kind of models we need to better mimic the world.