No Linealidades en la Regla de Política Monetaria del Banco Central de Chile: Una Evidencia Empírica

Abstract

This paper analyzes the evidence of non-linearities in the reaction function of the Central Bank of Chile as it relates to its final objective, inflation, and/or to its intermediate objectives defined by the monetary policy transmission channels. The study uses the flexible approach to non-linear inference proposed by Hamilton (2001), which allows the estimation of non-linear functions by using the data to determine the specific form of the non-linearity to be adopted instead of making any prior assumption of a particular functional form. It is observed that even though the Central Bank’s response is linear in relation to the deviations of the inflation rate from its target, there is evidence of non-linearities with respect to the business cycle. Contrary to previous studies, in particular Corbo (2002), the current account gap does not have any predictive role in the reaction function for the period being analyzed.