Pandemia Covid-19: impacto económico y políticas anticíclicas. Simulaciones basadas en un modelo de equilibrio general computado de Argentina

Abstract

A computable general equilibium model of Argentina was adapted to analyze the impact of the COVID 19 pandemia on the economy and to assess the mitigating effects of anti cyclical policies. The simulations are consistent with the observed performance of GDP, unemployment and social welfare. The anti cyclical program is effective in reducing the short term adverse impact on several economic and social indicators, paricularly, on social welfare. But over the médium and long term, smaller capital accumulation and sovereign indebtment imply lower growth and welfare. A sustainable fiscal policy – that stabilizes the debt-GDP ratio - allows the economy to, through higher investment and employment creation recover the base scenario levels (only)  after 10 years.