Pandemia Covid-19: impacto económico y políticas anticíclicas. Simulaciones basadas en un modelo de equilibrio general computado de Argentina

Daniel Fernando Oks; Omar Osvaldo Chisari; Juan Pablo Vila

doi:10.4067/S0718-88702023000100101

Authors

Daniel Fernando Oks Sin afiliacion académica actual. Anteriormente: Docente UBA, UADE
Omar Osvaldo Chisari IIEP-UBA
Juan Pablo Vila UADE - Universidad Argentina de la Empresa

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-88702023000100101

Keywords:

Computable General Equilibrium, Covid-19, Argentina, Anticyclical Policy

Abstract

A computable general equilibrium model of Argentina was adapted to analyze the impact of the Covid-19 pandemia on the economy and to assess the mitigating effects of anticyclical policies. The simulations are consistent with the observed performance of GDP, unemployment and social welfare. The anticyclical program is effective in reducing the short term adverse impact on several economic and social indicators, particularly, on social welfare. But over the medium and long term, smaller capital accumulation and sovereign indebtment imply lower growth and welfare. A sustainable fiscal policy –that stabilizes the debt-GDP ratio– allows the economy to, through higher investment and employment creation recover the base scenario levels (only) after 10 years.

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Author Biographies

Daniel Fernando Oks, Sin afiliacion académica actual. Anteriormente: Docente UBA, UADE

CEO Desur

Omar Osvaldo Chisari, IIEP-UBA

Professor Economics UBA (Buenos Airy) andes Universit UADE (Universidad Argentina de la Empresa)

Formerly Senior Researcher CONICET (National Council for Science and Technological Research) and Dean Economics Faculty at UADE.

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