Política monetaria de economías abiertas: el rol del tipo de cambio en México

Oscar Pérez-Laurrabaquio

doi:10.4067/S0718-88702020000100027

Authors

Oscar Pérez-Laurrabaquio

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-88702020000100027

Keywords:

Time series models, monetary policy, exchange policy

Abstract

This paper analyzes the role of the exchange rate in Mexico during the inflation targeting regime. The framework is based on the New Keynesian Macroeconomics, and the empirical evidence in the estimation of a Vector Error Correction model and the statistical analysis of the inflation targeting in Mexico and Latin America. The results describe to the Mexico’s monetary policy as a hybrid system, where the nominal interest rate (policy instrument) and appreciations of the real exchange rate (intermediate instrument), have as their primary objective, the inflation stabilization within a numerical goal.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Angeriz, A., & Arestis, P. (2009). Objetivo de inflación: Evaluación de la evidencia [Inflation targeting: An assessment of the evidence]. Investigación Económica, 68(especial), 21–46. https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2009.0.16686

Arestis, P., & Sawyer, M. C. (2003). Inflation targeting: A critical appraisal (Working Paper N.º 388). Levy Economics Institute of Bard College.

Artís, M., López, E., Sansó, A., & Suriñach, J. (1995). Análisis económico regional: Nociones básicas de la teoría de la cointegración [Regional economic analysis: Basic notions of cointegration theory]. Antoni Bosch.

Ball, C. P., & Reyes, J. (2004). Inflation targeting or fear of floating in disguise: The case of Mexico. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 9(1), 49–69. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.221

Ball, L. M. (1997). Efficient rules for monetary policy (Working Paper N.º 5952). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Ball, L. M. (1998). Policy rules for open economies (Working Paper N.º 6760). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Banco Central de Chile. (2007). La política monetaria del Banco Central de Chile en el marco de metas de inflación [The monetary policy of the Central Bank of Chile within the inflation targeting framework]. https://books.google.com.mx/books/about/La_pol%C3%ADtica_monetaria_del_Banco_Central.html?id=zOi2AAAAIAAJ&redir_esc=y

Banco Central de Guatemala. (2015). Evaluación de la política monetaria, cambiaria y crediticia, a noviembre de 2015, y perspectivas económicas para 2016 [Assessment of monetary, exchange rate and credit policy through November 2015, and economic outlook for 2016]. http://www.banguat.gob.gt/inc/main.asp?id=121516&aud=1&lang=1

Banco Central de Guatemala. (2017). Evaluaciones de política monetaria, cambiaria y crediticia 1998-2014 [Assessments of monetary, exchange rate and credit policy 1998-2014]. http://www.banguat.gob.gt/inc/main.asp?id=119371&aud=1&lang=1

Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. (2002). Programa monetario para el año 2002: Enero 2002 [Monetary program for the year 2002: January 2002]. http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/politica-monetaria/notas-informativas-del-programa-monetario.html

Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. (2007). Nota informativa: BCRP reduce meta de inflación a 2,0 por ciento [Press release: The BCRP lowers its inflation target to 2.0 percent]. http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/politica-monetaria/notas-informativas-del-programa-monetario.html

Banco Central do Brasil. (2017). Histórico das metas para inflação [History of inflation targets]. http://www.bcb.gov.br/pt-br/#!/n/SISMETAS

Banco de la República. (2017). Meta de inflación [Inflation target]. http://www.banrep.gov.co/es/meta-inflacion

Banco de la Reserva de Nueva Zelanda. (1990). Policy targets agreement for 1990. http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/policy-targets-agreements/pta1990-mar

Banco de México. (2017a). Esquema de objetivos de inflación [Inflation targeting framework]. http://www.banxico.org.mx/divulgacion/politica-monetaria-e-inflacion/politica-monetaria-inflacion.html#Esquemadeobjetivosdeinflacion

Banco de México. (2017b). Índice de tipo de cambio real [Real exchange rate index]. http://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?sector=6&accion=consultarCuadro&idCuadro=CR60&locale=es

Barbosa-Filho, N. H. (2015). Monetary policy with a volatile exchange rate: The case of Brazil since 1999. Comparative Economic Studies, 57(3), 401–425. https://doi.org/10.1057/ces.2015.15

Bernanke, B. S., & Mishkin, F. S. (1997). Inflation targeting: A new framework for monetary policy? (Working Paper N.º 5893). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Best, G. (2013). Fear of floating or monetary policy as usual? A structural analysis of Mexico's monetary policy. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 24, 45–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2012.05.002

Blinder, A. S. (1999). El banco central: Teoría y práctica [Central banking: Theory and practice]. Antoni Bosch.

Calvo, G. A. (1983). Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383–398. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(83)90060-0

Calvo, G. A., & Reinhart, C. M. (2000). Fear of floating (Working Paper N.º 7993). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Cámara de Diputados. (1993). Constitución Política de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos [Political Constitution of the United Mexican States]. (Obra original publicada en 1917). http://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/ref/cpeum.htm

Carrasco, M., & Schmidt-Hebbel, K. (2016). The past and future of inflation targeting: Implications for emerging-market and developing economies. In C. Ghate & K. M. Kletzer (Eds.), Monetary policy in India: A modern macroeconomic perspective (pp. 583–622). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-81-322-2840-0_18

Cecchetti, S. G., & Ehrmann, M. (1999). Does inflation targeting increase output volatility? An international comparison of policymakers' preferences and outcomes (Working Paper N.º 7426). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Cermeño, R., Orellana, J., & Villagómez, F. A. (2012). Monetary policy rules in a small open economy: An application to Mexico. Journal of Applied Economics, 15(2), 259–286. https://doi.org/10.1016/s1514-0326(12)60012-9

Chamon, M., Ghosh, A. R., & Ostry, J. D. (2016). Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 60, 172–196.

Clarida, R. H., Galí, J., & Gertler, M. (1999). The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective (Working Paper N.º 7147). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Clarida, R. H., Galí, J., & Gertler, M. (2001). Optimal monetary policy in closed versus open economies: An integrated approach (Working Paper N.º 8604). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe. (2017). Estadísticas e indicadores [Statistics and indicators]. http://estadisticas.cepal.org/cepalstat/WEB_CEPALSTAT/estadisticasIndicadores.asp?idioma=e

Corbo, V., Landerretche, O., & Schmidt-Hebbel, K. (2001). Assessing inflation targeting after a decade of world experience. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 6(4), 343–368. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.165

De Mello, L., & Moccero, D. (2007). Monetary policy and macroeconomic stability in Latin America: The cases of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico (Working Paper N.º 545). OCDE, Departamento de Economía.

De Paula, L. F., & Ferrari-Filho, F. (2010). Arestis and Sawyer's criticism on the New Consensus Macroeconomics: Some issues related to emerging countries. In G. Fontana, J. McCombie, & M. C. Sawyer (Eds.), Macroeconomics, finance and money: Essays in honour of Philip Arestis (pp. 19–34). Palgrave Macmillan.

EViews. (2015). EViews 9 user's guide II. IHS Global.

García-Solanes, J., & Torrejón-Flores, F. (2012). La fijación de metas de inflación da buenos resultados en América Latina [Inflation targeting works well in Latin America]. Revista CEPAL, (106), 37–55.

Gerdesmeier, D., & Roffia, B. (2003). Empirical estimates of reaction functions for the euro area (Working Paper N.º 206). Banco Central Europeo.

Gerlach, S., & Schnabel, G. (2000). The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area. Economics Letters, 67(2), 165–171.

Gluzmann, P. A., Levy-Yeyati, E., & Sturzenegger, F. (2013). Fear of appreciation. Journal of Development Economics, 101, 233–247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.11.008

Gonçalves, C. E. S., & Salles, J. M. (2008). Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say? Journal of Development Economics, 85(1), 312–318.

Guzmán, M., Ocampo, J. A., & Stiglitz, J. E. (2017). Real exchange rate policies for economic development (Working Paper N.º 23868). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Hammond, G. (2012). State of the art of inflation targeting (Handbook N.º 29). Banco de Inglaterra.

Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. (2017). Banco de Información Económica [Economic Information Bank]. http://www.inegi.org.mx/sistemas/bie/

Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. Oxford University Press.

Leitemo, K., & Söderström, U. (2008). Robust monetary policy in a small open economy. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 32(10), 3218–3252.

Levy-Yeyati, E., & Sturzenegger, F. (2007). Fear of floating in reverse: Exchange rate policy in the 2000s [Ponencia]. LACEA-LAMES Annual Meetings.

Levy-Yeyati, E., & Sturzenegger, F. (2009). (The effect of) monetary and exchange rate policies (on development) (Documento de Trabajo N.º 03/2009). Escuela de Negocios, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-444-52944-2.00002-1

Libman, E. (2017). Una nota sobre la devaluación contractiva bajo un esquema de metas de inflación [A note on contractionary devaluation under an inflation targeting regime]. El Trimestre Económico, 84(336), 869–898. https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v84i336.609

Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New introduction to multiple time series analysis. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-27752-1_1

Masson, P. R., Savastano, M. A., & Sharma, S. (1997). The scope for inflation targeting in developing countries (Working Paper N.º 97/130). Fondo Monetario Internacional.

Mishkin, F. S. (2000). Inflation targeting in emerging market countries (Working Paper N.º 7618). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Mishkin, F. S. (2004). Can inflation targeting work in emerging market countries? (Working Paper N.º 10646). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Neumann, M. J. M., & Von Hagen, J. (2002). Does inflation targeting matter? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 84(4), 127–148. https://doi.org/10.20955/r.84.127-148

Pérez-Laurrabaquio, O. (2012). Un estudio empírico de la regla de Taylor para México [An empirical study of the Taylor rule for Mexico]. Economía Informa, (375), 55–67.

Pérez-Laurrabaquio, O. (2014). Relación no lineal entre la inflación y crecimiento económico: La experiencia de México [Nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth: The experience of Mexico]. Problemas del Desarrollo, 45(177), 141–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0301-7036(14)70866-1

Pontines, V., & Siregar, R. Y. (2012a). Exchange rate asymmetry and flexible exchange rates under inflation targeting regimes: Evidence from four East and Southeast Asian countries. Review of International Economics, 20(5), 893–908. https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12002

Pontines, V., & Siregar, R. Y. (2012b). Fear of appreciation in East and Southeast Asia: The role of the Chinese renminbi. Journal of Asian Economics, 23(4), 324–334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2012.03.005

Pontines, V., & Siregar, R. Y. (2015). Do Asian countries fear appreciation against the renminbi? In J. Corbett & Y. Xu (Eds.), Rebalancing economies in financially integrating East Asia (pp. 75–101). Routledge.

Ramos-Francia, M., & Torres, A. (2005). Reducing inflation through inflation targeting: The Mexican experience (Documento de Trabajo N.º 2005-01). Banco de México. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-28201-7_1

Rapetti, M., Razmi, A., & Skott, P. (2012). The real exchange rate and economic development. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 23(2), 151–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2012.01.002

Roger, S., & Stone, M. R. (2005). On target? The international experience with achieving inflation targets (Working Paper N.º 05/163). Fondo Monetario Internacional.

Ros, J. (2015). Central bank policies in Mexico: Targets, instruments, and performance. Comparative Economic Studies, 57(3), 483–510. https://doi.org/10.1057/ces.2015.6

Schmidt-Hebbel, K., & Werner, A. (2002). Inflation targeting in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico: Performance, credibility, and the exchange rate (Documento de Trabajo N.º 171). Banco Central de Chile.

Sterne, G. (2001). Inflation targets in a global context (Documento de Trabajo N.º 114). Banco Central de Chile.

Svensson, L. E. O. (1996). Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets (Working Paper N.º 5797). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Svensson, L. E. O. (1998). Open-economy inflation targeting (Working Paper N.º 6545). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Svensson, L. E. O. (2001). Independent review of the operation of monetary policy in New Zealand: Report of the Minister of Finance. https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/about-monetary-policy/independent-review-of-the-operation-of-monetary-policy-2

Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195–214. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2231(93)90009-l

Taylor, J. B. (1998). An historical analysis of monetary policy rules (Working Paper N.º 6768). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226791265.001.0001

Taylor, J. B. (2001). The role of the exchange rate in monetary-policy rules. American Economic Review, 91(2), 263–267. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.2.263

Wooldridge, J. M. (2016). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach. South-Western.