Dinámica de los flujos de entrada y salida del desempleo en Chile 1996-2016

Felipe Lopez Sabalaga

doi:10.4067/S0718-88702018000200003

Authors

Felipe Lopez Sabalaga Universidad Alberto Hurtado

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-88702018000200003

Keywords:

Cyclical unemployment, labor market flows, SVAR analysis

Abstract

The present paper investigates the dynamics in the chilean labor market during 1996 and 2016. It estimates the unemployment flows following Shimer (2012) in order to characterize labor market variables in the bussisnes cycle. According to our results recessionary increases in unemployment are driven by the outflow from unemployment rather than the inflow. Using structural vector autorregresive analysis (SVAR), we estimate a model to identify several shocks that affect the economy and labor market. An aggregate supply shock generates greater variance in the inflow also shows grater persistence to the variety of shocks examined; meanwhile an aggregate demand shock generates greater variance in the outflow.

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