Multidimensional and monetary poverty in Peru: Evidence of their evolution, determinants, and the impact of the pandemic

Dante Urbina; Nicole Ariana Caceres  Bautista

doi:10.4067/S0718-88702025000100003

Autores/as

Dante Urbina Universidad de Lima
Nicole Ariana Caceres Bautista Banco de Crédito del Perú

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-88702025000100003

Palabras clave:

Pobreza multidimensional, Ponderaciones, Líneas de corte de pobreza, COVID-19, Perú

Resumen

La aparición de la COVID-19 ha dejado profundas secuelas económicas, interrumpiendo décadas de progreso constante en la reducción de la pobreza en varios países. En este contexto, es relevante estudiar la economía peruana, ya que experimentó una de las tasas de mortalidad por COVID-19 más altas del mundo, su PIB disminuyó 11% y su tasa de pobreza monetaria aumentó al 30%, una situación no observada desde 2010. Por tanto, para comprender mejor el panorama socioeconómico de Perú después de la pandemia, construimos un Índice de Pobreza Multidimensional durante el período 2019-2022 y lo comparamos con la pobreza monetaria utilizando datos provenientes de la Encuesta Nacional de Hogares. Encontramos que esta última fue más volátil que la pobreza multidimensional. Empleando regresiones logísticas de panel, surgen patrones consistentes en términos de los signos y la significancia estadística de los efectos marginales para ambas mediciones de pobreza mediante varias estructuras de ponderación y puntos de corte de pobreza. Por ejemplo, ciertos grupos demográficos, incluyendo mujeres rurales, aquellos solo con educación primaria, desempleados y trabajadores informales, exhiben una probabilidad significativamente mayor de experimentar pobreza monetaria y multidimensional. La pandemia también aumentó la probabilidad de experimentar ambos tipos de pobreza en todos los escenarios considerados. Por el contrario, las personas de etnia mestiza y aquellas con mayor nivel educativo presentan una menor probabilidad de experimentar ambos tipos de pobreza.

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