Convergence and Long-Run Uncertainty

Pablo M. Pincheira

doi:10.4067/S0718-88702014000100002

Autores/as

Pablo M. Pincheira Central Bank of Chile

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-88702014000100002

Palabras clave:

Hipótesis de convergencia, crecimiento económico, promedio bayesiano, cointegración, Chile

Resumen

En este trabajo se prueba la hipótesis de convergencia neoclásica con las trece regiones de Chile utilizando las técnicas de corte transversal de Bernard, A. and S. Durlauf (1995). “Convergence in International Output”, Journal of Applied Econometrics 10 (2), pp. 97-108. El uso de corte transversal combinado con el promedio bayesiano de modelos apoya la hipótesis de convergencia, a pesar de cierta inestabilidad en la velocidad de convergencia. Al aplicar pruebas de series de tiempo, la hipótesis nula de no convergencia no es rechazada a niveles usuales de significancia estadística. Al agrupar las regiones de Chile en tres zonas, sin embargo, se encuentra evidencia de cointegración entre las tres zonas, sugiriendo que el crecimiento regional de Chile se debe a un bajo número de tendencias comunes.

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Biografía del autor/a

Pablo M. Pincheira, Central Bank of Chile

Agustinas 1180, Santiago, Chile. Phone: +56 2 26702874. E-mail: [email protected]

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