Ciclicidad de la política fiscal en Ecuador

Segundo Camino-Mogro; Luis Brito-Gaona

doi:10.4067/S0718-88702021000100049

Authors

Segundo Camino-Mogro ESAI Business School – Universidad de Especialidades Espíritu Santo; Superintendencia de Compañías, Valores y Seguros del Ecuador y Ecuadorian Political Economy Lab (EPEL) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8141-5237
Luis Brito-Gaona Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales de la Universidad Técnica de Machala y Grupo de investigación Global Plus

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-88702021000100049

Keywords:

Fiscal Policy, Cyclicity, Ecuador

Abstract

This article finds new empirical evidence on the cyclicality of fiscal policy in Ecuador between 1982-2018, additionally, the analysis is divided into before and after dollarization. The Ordinary Least Squares and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares methods were used and the cyclicality coefficients were estimated for a set of fiscal variables such as: real growth rate of government spending, government consumption, government capital spending, non-revenue oil and primary balance. The results show that fiscal policy is pro-cyclical but proportionally less than GDP fluctuations only in the real growth rate of government consumption, while in the other variables no robust evidence was found.

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Author Biographies

Segundo Camino-Mogro, ESAI Business School – Universidad de Especialidades Espíritu Santo; Superintendencia de Compañías, Valores y Seguros del Ecuador y Ecuadorian Political Economy Lab (EPEL)

Director Nacional de Investigación y Estudios de la Superintendencia de Compañías, Valores y Seguros del Ecuador e Investigador Asociado de ESAI Business School – Universidad de Especialidades Espíritu Santo, Ecuador. E-mail: [email protected]

Luis Brito-Gaona, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales de la Universidad Técnica de Machala y Grupo de investigación Global Plus

Ph.D en Análisis Económico y Estrategia Empresarial por la Universidad de la Coruña, España. Profesor de la Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales de la Universidad Técnica de Machala, Campus El Cambio. 070150, El Oro. Ecuador. Grupo de investigación Global Plus. E-mail: [email protected]

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